Defenseless-Eyebrow
0xe50c19a43bdd336b171e481e5630dc5e8f73d88c
Wallet digest
Activity score
98/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$419.20
Total PnL
$-71.62
Realised
$33.34
Win rate
94%
35 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
86 shares @ 25.3¢·now 23.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.57
$-1.33
- UP
Canada's population Up or Down this year?
60 shares @ 28.3¢·now 27.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$16.51
$-0.49
- NO
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2027?
25 shares @ 62.8¢·now 61.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$15.08
$-0.45
- YES
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
96 shares @ 11.9¢·now 11.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.72
$-0.77
- YES
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?
40 shares @ 35.5¢·now 24.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$9.60
$-4.60
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?
15 shares @ 57.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$8.91
$0.37
- YES
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?
20 shares @ 42.4¢·now 42.8¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$8.56
$0.09
- NO
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?
21 shares @ 19.0¢·now 39.1¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$8.37
$4.30
- YES
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
48 shares @ 15.8¢·now 15.8¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$7.55
$0.04
- YES
Theo FDV above $700M one day after launch?
80 shares @ 1.1¢·now 8.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.80
$5.95
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026?$0.25Jul 22, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026?$0.35Jul 22, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026?$0.40Jul 22, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026?$0.50Jul 22, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027?$0.20Jul 22, 19:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$0.65Jul 22, 19:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?$1.20Jul 22, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81$0.55Jul 22, 18:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?$9.72Jul 22, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81$0.28Jul 22, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYFelix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch?$0.25Jul 22, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYHuddle FDV above $20M one day after launch?$0.25Jul 22, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Byron Donalds announce a presidential run before 2027?$0.10Jul 22, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?$1.20Jul 22, 18:20 UTC
- TRADESELLFelix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?$0.75Jul 22, 18:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?$1.20Jul 22, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81$0.11Jul 22, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81$0.11Jul 22, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be less than 47% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$0.42Jul 22, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYFelix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?$0.65Jul 22, 17:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
94% win rate over 35 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
35 closed markets, 94% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 05:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 20:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 35 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.