Scarce-Hydrocarbon
0xe84c100dc1e4f194086d9d5381db4ac2293f9277
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$48.79
Total PnL
$-38.52
Realised
$-0.83
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?
82 shares @ 26.2¢·now 17.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.01
$-7.62
- YES
Will any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
35 shares @ 38.9¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.67
$-2.92
- YES
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
15 shares @ 57.3¢·now 62.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.30
$0.70
- NO
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?
10 shares @ 52.0¢·now 62.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.35
$1.02
- YES
Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
10 shares @ 54.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.35
$-0.05
- YES
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
20 shares @ 21.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.10
$-1.10
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
14 shares @ 29.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?
12 shares @ 68.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-8.44
- YES
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
10 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.47
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?$5.50May 15, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?$4.33May 15, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?$11.99May 15, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?$1.95May 15, 20:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$0.39May 15, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$1.04May 15, 20:42 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$3.25May 15, 20:41 UTC
- SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$5.00May 15, 20:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$0.99May 15, 20:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$3.50May 15, 20:35 UTC
- SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$5.00May 15, 20:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$2.68May 15, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$1.06May 15, 20:33 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$2.26May 15, 20:28 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$3.50May 15, 20:26 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$1.27May 15, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$1.03May 15, 20:23 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$3.37May 15, 20:23 UTC
- SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$5.00May 15, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$1.06May 15, 20:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $4.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 28, 21:50 UTC
- Last active
- May 15, 20:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".