Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?
Probability
20¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$616.92
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 20¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 22.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5983.8h
- 16:14SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 19¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 20¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to "Yes" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released. If a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (22.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).