Melodic-Curve
0xe8859f0596b856298a8243e1d8549093c81d38ef
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
5
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-18.1K
Realised
$-15.0K
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
211906 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-262.13
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
145000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-149.93
- YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
22916 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.5K
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
14240 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-30.22
- YES
Iran leadership change by April 30?
4527 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-153.89
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?$1.00May 1, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?$40.00May 1, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$9.67May 1, 01:59 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?$9.96May 1, 01:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?$2.28May 1, 01:59 UTC
- TRADESELLUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$9.89May 1, 01:59 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$9.47May 1, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?$3.00May 1, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?$110.00May 1, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?$10.00May 1, 01:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$17.78May 1, 01:58 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by April 30?$13.58May 1, 01:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$52.38May 1, 01:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$9.58May 1, 01:57 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?$29.02May 1, 01:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?$365.00May 1, 01:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?$69.14May 1, 01:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?$98.33May 1, 01:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?$98.60May 1, 01:55 UTC
- TRADESELLUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?$99.38May 1, 01:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $141.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 1, 01:07 UTC
- Last active
- May 1, 02:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.