Probable-Papaya
0xea072939e51d1e86de36dc3c4a79c19b9beec982
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$856.62
Total PnL
$-102.38
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?
213 shares @ 93.8¢·now 95.8¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$204.17
$4.17
- NO
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
119 shares @ 84.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$99.40
$-0.60
- NO
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
270 shares @ 37.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$97.30
$-2.70
- NO
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
137 shares @ 73.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$94.51
$-5.49
- NO
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
403 shares @ 24.8¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$86.62
$-13.38
- NO
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
121 shares @ 82.8¢·now 71.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$85.78
$-14.22
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
100 shares @ 61.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$68.00
$7.00
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
119 shares @ 84.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$50.60
$-49.40
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
44 shares @ 90.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.89
$0.89
- NO
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?
41 shares @ 49.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$19.80
$-0.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?$20.31Jun 14, 14:28 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by June 30?$20.62Jun 14, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win on 2026-06-13?$27.33Jun 12, 21:40 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by June 30?$2.91Jun 12, 13:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$0.00Jun 11, 18:30 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?$0.00Jun 11, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine Peace Parlay$100.00Jun 11, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?$100.00Jun 11, 12:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?$100.00Jun 11, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$100.00Jun 11, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?$100.00Jun 11, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?$10.46Jun 11, 12:02 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael closes its airspace by June 10?$10.43Jun 11, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$61.00Jun 11, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$100.00Jun 11, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$5.29Jun 10, 23:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$29.50Jun 10, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$26.40Jun 10, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?$200.00Jun 10, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$1.00Jun 10, 23:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $47.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 14, 22:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 14:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.