Bad-Screwdriver
0xea66e66396d8663c1e108cb3d1c1208b0c6ebb43
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$21.4K
Total PnL
$-5.1K
Realised
$134.26
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
7969 shares @ 50.2¢·now 76.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.1K
$2.1K
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
4846 shares @ 90.8¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.4K
$34.24
- NO
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
4606 shares @ 82.5¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.9K
$138.28
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
3916 shares @ 76.6¢·now 83.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$3.3K
$250.64
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
2273 shares @ 88.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.2K
$169.32
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
1990 shares @ 75.4¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$82.18
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
14575 shares @ 53.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-7.8K
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
357 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-150.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$900.00Jul 9, 12:37 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?$1.0KJul 1, 21:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?$125.62Jul 1, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$1.5KJun 30, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?$4.0KJun 27, 02:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?$3.0KJun 27, 02:43 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$3.9KJun 27, 01:49 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$5.7KJun 27, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$3.5KJun 24, 02:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$2.0KJun 24, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYCuban regime falls in 2026?$3.8KJun 24, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?$81.16Jun 23, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$4.0KJun 23, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$2.0KJun 22, 04:23 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$9.2KJun 19, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$3.0KJun 19, 20:10 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$209.94Jun 18, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$2.0KJun 18, 23:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?$150.00Jun 18, 23:11 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$415.67Jun 18, 23:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
46 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
$7.9K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $2.5K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 04:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 12:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.