0xec4ddb228b18c52b1093cf43b1b834584450be21
0xec4ddb228b18c52b1093cf43b1b834584450be21
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
36
Open notional
$5.7K
Total PnL
$-2.6K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- YES
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?
639 shares @ 29.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$635.15
$449.75
- YES
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?
639 shares @ 42.0¢·now 59.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$377.75
$109.52
- NO
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
1466 shares @ 16.0¢·now 25.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$366.43
$131.92
- NO
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?
1692 shares @ 13.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$313.03
$93.06
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?
535 shares @ 24.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$302.46
$173.96
- NO
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?
2123 shares @ 12.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$286.55
$31.84
- YES
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
1707 shares @ 30.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$264.56
$-247.49
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?
3072 shares @ 10.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$261.15
$-46.09
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
638 shares @ 19.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$226.57
$105.31
- NO
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
1058 shares @ 22.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$216.89
$-15.87
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$6.82Jul 23, 02:38 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.23Jul 23, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$5.45Jul 23, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$60.00Jul 22, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$0.60Jul 22, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$73.74Jul 22, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?$16.87Jul 22, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?$0.50Jul 22, 13:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$100.01Jul 22, 13:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?$112.20Jul 22, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?$0.56Jul 22, 05:24 UTC
- REWARD$4.85Jul 22, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$4.38Jul 21, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?$5.00Jul 20, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?$5.00Jul 20, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?$2.59Jul 20, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?$5.00Jul 20, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?$5.00Jul 20, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?$2.50Jul 20, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?$5.00Jul 20, 14:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $38.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 12:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 02:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.