Glittering-Elf
0xed89c0a75bc0352efe97a2c6925ba8d6e487647b
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
159
Open notional
$22.99
Total PnL
$-17.61
Realised
$2.81
Win rate
68%
37 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 159- YES
Will Pudgy Penguins floor price dip to 2 ETH before 2027?
11 shares @ 10.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.78
$2.65
- YES
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 8.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.60
$0.40
- YES
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a presidential run before 2027?
40 shares @ 7.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.00
$0.20
- YES
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
41 shares @ 7.5¢·now 6.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.75
$-0.30
- YES
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
40 shares @ 1.1¢·now 3.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.26
$0.82
- YES
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?
5 shares @ 12.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.72
$0.12
- YES
Will Allegiant announce bankruptcy by December 31?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.70
$-0.30
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-07 House seat?
10 shares @ 9.0¢·now 5.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.50
$-0.40
- YES
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
10 shares @ 3.6¢·now 4.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2026$0.40
$0.04
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-09 House seat?
5 shares @ 9.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.33
$-0.12
Recent activity
- TRADESELLTshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?$0.30Jul 21, 21:09 UTC
- TRADESELLTshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?$1.85Jul 17, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLTshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?$1.85Jul 17, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the KY-05 House seat?$0.30Jul 15, 22:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the MA-01 House seat?$0.35Jul 12, 21:04 UTC
- REDEEMTaylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?$0.75Jul 8, 04:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?$0.99Jul 8, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYAhmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?$1.82Jul 5, 04:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the NC-12 House seat?$0.30Jul 4, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYAhmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?$0.35Jul 2, 19:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill XRP dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026?$0.56Jun 24, 18:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the MI-02 House seat?$0.35Jun 22, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYAhmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?$0.09Jun 19, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYAhmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?$0.94Jun 19, 08:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June?$0.14Jun 18, 12:11 UTC
- TRADESELLRamp IPO before 2027?$0.23Jun 16, 18:38 UTC
- TRADESELLRamp IPO before 2027?$0.22Jun 14, 21:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.16Jun 13, 01:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill XRP dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026?$0.86Jun 12, 17:43 UTC
- TRADESELLRamp IPO before 2027?$0.56Jun 12, 17:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
68% win rate over 37 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
37 closed markets, 68% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $0.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 27, 18:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 21:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 37 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.