Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Probability
5¢
1h
+0.8pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$4.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5989.8h
- 10:12SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5990h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.8pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.1pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.8pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.6pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 5¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).