Familiar-Critic
0xef37cd265e98f2619dced7ad2095f75e5687f2bc
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$3.1K
Total PnL
$239.51
Realised
$-30.07
Win rate
33%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
2244 shares @ 77.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$2.2K
$512.57
- SRI LANKA
ODI Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka
536 shares @ 79.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$259.96
$-163.48
- NO
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?
146 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$146.00
$61.32
- NO
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
104 shares @ 88.4¢·now 93.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$97.45
$5.51
- NO
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?
136 shares @ 46.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$60.52
$-2.04
- YES
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?
53 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$53.00
$11.13
- OPENAI
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
507 shares @ 34.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$48.16
$-124.22
- NO
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?
45 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$45.00
$15.75
- NO
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
94 shares @ 58.5¢·now 38.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$36.19
$-18.82
- NO
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?
66 shares @ 16.0¢·now 54.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$35.71
$25.15
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMNancy Guthrie kidnapper arrested by February 28?$0.00Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill "One Battle After Another" win Best Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?$0.23Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Gaza on February 21, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?$0.50Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?$0.65Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 20 to February 27, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill February 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?$0.00Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Club Brugge advance to the round of 16?$2.00Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMFrench forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?$0.00Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMGemini 3.5 released by May 31?$0.00Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by April 15, 2026?$5.00Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?$0.00Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMJudy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?$0.00Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Pete Chambers win the 2026 Texas Governor Republican primary election?$0.00Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMRayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5$0.00Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMSouthern Miss Golden Eagles vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers$10.28Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMLevante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5$0.00Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
25/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
7 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 7
- Avg trade size
- $71.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 21, 10:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 07:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.