0xf040b3611787aaf4c8729210c8696731f990d11f
0xf040b3611787aaf4c8729210c8696731f990d11f
Wallet digest
Activity score
97/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$12.9K
Total PnL
$372.25
Realised
$71.25
Win rate
63%
63 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
170 shares @ 71.1¢·now 70.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$119.50
$-1.01
- YES
Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?
144 shares @ 70.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$113.67
$12.95
- NO
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
113 shares @ 93.2¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$108.17
$2.62
- NO
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
112 shares @ 94.1¢·now 96.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$107.78
$2.83
- NO
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?
114 shares @ 92.4¢·now 94.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$107.38
$2.32
- NO
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
113 shares @ 88.8¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$107.29
$7.29
- NO
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?
112 shares @ 94.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$107.27
$2.17
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
111 shares @ 92.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$106.61
$4.88
- NO
Imran Khan released from prison by December 31, 2026?
117 shares @ 86.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$106.42
$5.85
- NO
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?
114 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$106.13
$0.57
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMiami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5$1.46Aug 20, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)$0.18Aug 20, 00:18 UTC
- REDEEMToronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5$0.00Aug 20, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYLos Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros$3.03Aug 20, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Aug 20, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMToronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5$5.00Aug 20, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)$1.31Aug 20, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWashington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers$2.78Aug 20, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 3.5$0.82Aug 20, 00:09 UTC
- REDEEMToronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5$0.00Aug 20, 00:08 UTC
- REDEEMToronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5$5.00Aug 20, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)$1.41Aug 20, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)$3.02Aug 20, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYColumbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 5.5$1.10Aug 19, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYColumbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5$1.56Aug 19, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)$1.18Aug 19, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYColumbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5$3.91Aug 19, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYToronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics$4.40Aug 19, 23:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYSeattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers$1.15Aug 19, 23:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)$2.56Aug 19, 23:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
77/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 63 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
63 closed markets, 63% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $1.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 19, 23:16 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 00:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 63 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.