Amused-Colt
0xf2f8e29c0e5753d979bb4944fe838b7a8d739f7e
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$4.89
Total PnL
$-385.93
Realised
$229.54
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- YES
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by July 31, 2026?
1224 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.89
$-63.25
- NO
Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?
30876 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-244.91
- YES
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
14500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-29.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?
13483 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-99.49
- YES
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?
3872 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-23.00
- NO
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
3240 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-3.24
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
2260 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-9.90
- YES
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?
1384 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-7.80
- YES
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?
1286 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 24, 2026?$1.20Jul 24, 09:45 UTC
- TRADESELLAbbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by July 31, 2026?$0.37Jul 24, 09:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$0.00Jul 19, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$1.05Jul 19, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLAbbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by July 31, 2026?$1.77Jul 19, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$2.10Jul 19, 21:07 UTC
- TRADESELLAbbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by July 31, 2026?$2.17Jul 19, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the exact score of the penalty shootout in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?$3.48Jul 19, 21:04 UTC
- TRADESELLAbbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by July 31, 2026?$3.46Jul 19, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?$1.05Jul 19, 21:00 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Argentina?$1.05Jul 19, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Argentina?$6.29Jul 19, 20:59 UTC
- TRADESELLMohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by July 31, 2026?$6.23Jul 19, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYMohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by July 31, 2026?$8.00Jul 14, 21:07 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 15?$8.05Jul 14, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 15?$1.80Jul 14, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYMohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by July 31, 2026?$10.00Jul 13, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 15?$1.00Jul 13, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 15?$1.00Jul 13, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 15?$1.00Jul 13, 15:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
12/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $5.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 27, 15:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 09:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.