0xf41997150e321439626ce3a2436cf4d9e47e7d10
0xf41997150e321439626ce3a2436cf4d9e47e7d10
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$147.81
Total PnL
$-115.29
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will João Bernardo Vieira win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
22 shares @ 99.9¢·now 97.5¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$21.22
$-0.51
- NO
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
22 shares @ 99.9¢·now 97.5¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$21.22
$-0.51
- NO
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
22 shares @ 99.9¢·now 96.8¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$21.04
$-0.69
- NO
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
22 shares @ 99.9¢·now 95.9¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$20.85
$-0.88
- NO
Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
22 shares @ 99.9¢·now 93.6¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$20.36
$-1.37
- NO
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
22 shares @ 99.9¢·now 93.1¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$20.25
$-1.48
- NO
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
22 shares @ 99.9¢·now 87.8¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$19.10
$-2.63
- YES
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
22 shares @ 99.7¢·now 17.3¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$3.78
$-17.95
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3AM ET
44 shares @ 58.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-25.50
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 3AM ET
33 shares @ 76.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-25.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Emilio Gonzalez win the 2025 Miami mayoral election?$21.78Dec 10, 04:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zohran Mamdani win 0 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?$21.90Dec 3, 01:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zohran Mamdani win 1 borough in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?$21.90Dec 3, 01:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zohran Mamdani win 2 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?$22.03Dec 3, 01:55 UTC
- REDEEMMeta (META) Up or Down on December 2?$3.23Dec 3, 00:56 UTC
- REDEEMApple (AAPL) Up or Down on December 2?$3.23Dec 3, 00:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sliwa or Adams get more votes?$4.24Dec 3, 00:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zohran Mamdani win Brooklyn in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?$22.03Dec 3, 00:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zohran Mamdani win Manhattan in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?$22.15Dec 3, 00:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zohran Mamdani win Queens in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?$22.33Dec 3, 00:55 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 2?$3.23Dec 2, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYMeta (META) Up or Down on December 2?$3.23Dec 2, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYApple (AAPL) Up or Down on December 2?$3.23Dec 2, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 2?$3.23Dec 2, 20:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Eurozone’s October 2025 unemployment rate be ≤6.1%?$4.25Dec 2, 14:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 167m and 177m?$4.25Dec 2, 02:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be less than 157m?$4.43Dec 2, 02:55 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 1?$4.24Dec 1, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Eurozone’s October 2025 unemployment rate be ≤6.1%?$4.25Dec 1, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 1?$4.24Dec 1, 20:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $9.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 27, 00:56 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 10, 04:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.