Swift-Iris
0xf42f4a4211d058cd109d503cf13f7bcdfc82a6a7
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
166
Open notional
$81.3K
Total PnL
$-35.2K
Realised
$-6.5K
Win rate
30%
54 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 166- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
24258 shares @ 75.5¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.0K
$736.49
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
11500 shares @ 88.3¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.9K
$712.51
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
11507 shares @ 80.3¢·now 76.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$8.8K
$-396.34
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
11340 shares @ 59.7¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.9K
$1.1K
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
6000 shares @ 89.6¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.9K
$571.72
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
3500 shares @ 86.3¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.0K
$7.51
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
2712 shares @ 87.7¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.7K
$328.54
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
2665 shares @ 83.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.5K
$338.39
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
3074 shares @ 55.7¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.4K
$730.70
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
2500 shares @ 77.2¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.2K
$257.52
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$243.01Jul 28, 20:14 UTC
- REDEEMIran full airspace closure by July 27?$500.00Jul 28, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$41.77Jul 28, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$352.23Jul 28, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$200.41Jul 28, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$196.59Jul 28, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$401.09Jul 28, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$159.64Jul 28, 15:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$160.23Jul 28, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$215.43Jul 28, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$192.48Jul 28, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$152.40Jul 28, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$234.50Jul 28, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$181.92Jul 28, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$740.00Jul 28, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$475.00Jul 28, 10:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$485.59Jul 28, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$4.56Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$9.91Jul 27, 23:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 54 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
54 closed markets, 30% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $455.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 12:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 54 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.