Noxious-Columnist
0xf503627922c01997259ea727bcb17e8ef49a39e2
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
79
Open notional
$55.98
Total PnL
$27.60
Realised
$28.47
Win rate
55%
60 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 79- NO
Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?
5 shares @ 79.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.89
$0.89
- NO
Ledger IPO closing market cap above $2B?
5 shares @ 39.6¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$3.59
$1.63
- NO
Will Ventuals launch a token by December 31 2026?
3 shares @ 15.9¢·now 96.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.98
$2.49
- NO
Will Jacinda Ardern be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
3 shares @ 58.3¢·now 97.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$2.95
$1.19
- NO
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
3 shares @ 90.4¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.83
$0.26
- NO
QFEX FDV above $50M one day after launch?
5 shares @ 45.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$2.56
$0.45
- NO
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
2 shares @ 83.2¢·now 99.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.23
$0.36
- NO
Will Houston Texans win the 2026 AFC South?
4 shares @ 71.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Jan 4, 2027$2.20
$-0.54
- NO
Decibel FDV above $100M one day after launch?
3 shares @ 32.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$2.03
$1.06
- YES
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?
3 shares @ 58.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$1.87
$0.37
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Ben Carson be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026?$0.04Jul 25, 06:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ben Carson be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026?$0.01Jul 25, 06:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?$2.41Jul 12, 13:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026?$5.00Jul 8, 16:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ben Carson be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026?$0.00Jul 7, 18:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Khamzat Chimaev be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?$0.01Jul 4, 20:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ben Carson be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026?$0.05Jul 4, 20:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ben Carson be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026?$0.03Jul 4, 20:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ben Carson be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026?$0.03Jul 4, 20:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ben Carson be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026?$0.02Jul 4, 20:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ben Carson be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026?$0.02Jul 4, 20:48 UTC
- REDEEMHamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?$2.54Jul 3, 01:00 UTC
- REDEEMLarry Wheels divorce by June 30?$3.42Jul 2, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine election called by June 30, 2026?$4.06Jul 1, 06:20 UTC
- REDEEMNetanyahu out by June 30?$1.58Jul 1, 06:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?$4.30Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Waymo launch in Denver by June 30 2026?$1.46Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?$3.43Jun 30, 19:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.0% and 1.2%?$0.02Jun 29, 18:54 UTC
- TRADESELLQFEX FDV above $80M one day after launch?$3.16Jun 26, 09:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 60 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
15 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
60 closed markets, 55% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 15
- Avg trade size
- $0.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 12:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 06:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 60 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.