Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026?
Probability
44¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
-6.8pp
24h Vol
$8.00
Liquidity
$23.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-10.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 44¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5977h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 6.4¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5976.5h
- 23:27SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5977h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-6.7pp over the last 24h, now 44¢.
Biggest hourly move: -14.6pp at 20:00 (to 44¢).
Show top 8 of 34 hourly moves
- 23:27 · -14.2pp → 44¢
- 22:00 · -14.3pp → 44¢
- 20:00 · -14.6pp → 44¢
- 19:00 · -14.4pp → 44¢
- 15:00 · -14.5pp → 44¢
- 14:00 · -14.4pp → 44¢
- 12:00 · -14.2pp → 44¢
- 11:00 · -14.3pp → 44¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.