Serene-Patent
0xf58d2e2fa292290e12bf92650a5f240a264ba617
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$169.40
Total PnL
$-2.8K
Realised
$-122.05
Win rate
33%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- OPENAI
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
625 shares @ 40.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$153.13
$-96.87
- YES
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
23 shares @ 19.0¢·now 42.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.73
$5.36
- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
6 shares @ 56.4¢·now 47.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.85
$-0.53
- YES
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
10 shares @ 37.0¢·now 27.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.70
$-1.00
- NO
Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?
1 shares @ 97.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.00
$0.02
- OVER
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5
975 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 14, 2025$0.00
$-302.25
- VILLARREAL CF
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)
898 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 14, 2025$0.00
$-197.56
- YES
Will Keir Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
832 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-99.84
- EAST TENNESSEE STATE BUCCANEERS
Mercer Bears vs. East Tennessee State Buccaneers (W)
766 shares @ 72.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-557.65
- LOUISIANA-MONROE WARHAWKS
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers
656 shares @ 25.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-165.97
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill "Frankenstein" win no awards at the Oscars?$0.67Apr 15, 09:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the San Antonio Spurs make the NBA Playoffs?$0.70Apr 15, 09:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?$3.00Apr 15, 09:23 UTC
- REDEEMXavier Musketeers vs. Clemson Tigers$55.50Apr 15, 09:23 UTC
- REDEEMMaryland Eastern Shore Hawks vs. Michigan State Spartans$115.00Apr 15, 09:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$16.06Apr 12, 08:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$75.19Apr 11, 19:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$6.57Apr 11, 19:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$5.84Apr 11, 19:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$7.30Apr 11, 19:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?$4.80Apr 11, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$110.96Apr 11, 03:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer say "Wireless" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$82.72Apr 11, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?$4.05Apr 11, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 85-89 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?$132.09Apr 9, 14:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 85-89 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?$65.31Apr 9, 14:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 85-89 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?$0.96Apr 9, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 85-89 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?$171.38Mar 30, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 85-89 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?$188.86Mar 30, 03:45 UTC
- TRADESELLNasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?$24.70Mar 26, 07:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $136.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 6, 05:19 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 15, 09:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".