0xf610482004e919446a65d06832d0233c8166741c
0xf610482004e919446a65d06832d0233c8166741c
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
111
Open notional
$902.72
Total PnL
$18.07
Realised
$-4.43
Win rate
43%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 111- NO
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
71 shares @ 14.0¢·now 46.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.69
$22.74
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
29 shares @ 0.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.77
$25.77
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
28 shares @ 35.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$20.37
$10.67
- NO
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?
20 shares @ 49.0¢·now 96.2¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$19.44
$9.54
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
63 shares @ 16.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$15.94
$5.94
- YES
Will "Hacks" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?
25 shares @ 38.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$15.38
$5.72
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
19 shares @ 0.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.22
$15.22
- YES
Will Pacific FC vs. Inter Toronto FC end in a draw?
30 shares @ 32.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$15.06
$5.42
- YES
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
28 shares @ 35.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$14.00
$4.30
- NO
Will Leavitt say "Go ahead" 5+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?
31 shares @ 31.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$13.90
$4.22
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$10.01Aug 9, 04:42 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET$13.16Aug 9, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 9?$10.00Aug 9, 04:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET$0.00Aug 9, 04:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET$3.22Aug 9, 04:28 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET$3.15Aug 9, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET$10.00Aug 9, 04:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET$10.00Aug 9, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?$1.53Aug 9, 03:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?$1.44Aug 9, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?$4.59Aug 9, 03:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?$2.11Aug 9, 03:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?$2.11Aug 9, 03:44 UTC
- REDEEMRhode Island FC vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC: Rhode Island FC 1st Half O/U 0.5$0.00Aug 9, 03:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?$1.89Aug 9, 03:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?$0.27Aug 9, 03:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?$1.07Aug 9, 03:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Club León FC win on 2026-08-08?$34.03Aug 9, 03:13 UTC
- REDEEMCA Independiente leading at halftime?$47.85Aug 9, 02:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?$0.66Aug 9, 02:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $5.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 8, 23:38 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 9, 04:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.