Shimmering-Reindeer
0xf6eab31d96d24310f33f258bc48a01bd48bc0a00
Wallet digest
Activity score
98/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$76.8K
Total PnL
$-832.96
Realised
$-853.11
Win rate
71%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
23350 shares @ 92.9¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$22.1K
$360.62
- NO
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?
17400 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$17.4K
$38.38
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
11000 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$11.0K
$56.51
- NO
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
6498 shares @ 76.5¢·now 64.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.2K
$-758.41
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
5000 shares @ 81.5¢·now 78.8¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$3.9K
$-135.00
- NO
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
2700 shares @ 90.6¢·now 91.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.5K
$20.80
- YES
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
2362 shares @ 97.8¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.3K
$20.65
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
2502 shares @ 88.1¢·now 78.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.0K
$-252.50
- NO
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
2345 shares @ 81.6¢·now 78.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.8K
$-68.42
- NO
AI bubble burst in 2026?
2148 shares @ 80.9¢·now 80.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.7K
$-0.83
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.28Jul 29, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$98.50Jul 29, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$39.40Jul 29, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$30.62Jul 29, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$4.57Jul 29, 00:50 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$2.8KJul 28, 22:28 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$2.5KJul 28, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$662.20Jul 28, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$20.46Jul 28, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 28, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 28, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 28, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 28, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$117.00Jul 28, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$6.36Jul 28, 19:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?$0.50Jul 28, 02:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?$0.50Jul 28, 02:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?$0.50Jul 28, 02:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?$0.50Jul 28, 02:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?$0.50Jul 28, 02:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $638.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 14:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 07:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.