Knowing-Proposition
0xf717cecc8120bf8ecab364c70cef510f46dc51e2
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$98.14
Total PnL
$16.14
Realised
$11.75
Win rate
67%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?
56 shares @ 66.7¢·now 84.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$47.14
$9.73
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
13 shares @ 84.7¢·now 95.2¢·exp May 31, 2026$12.20
$1.34
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
14 shares @ 45.0¢·now 45.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.26
$0.00
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
12 shares @ 48.6¢·now 45.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.39
$-0.43
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
6 shares @ 75.8¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.02
$0.57
- NO
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
16 shares @ 27.6¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.57
$0.14
- NO
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
10 shares @ 40.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.15
$0.15
- YES
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?
88 shares @ 9.1¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.76
$-4.24
- NO
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
4 shares @ 78.8¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.14
$0.14
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
2 shares @ 90.4¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.50
$0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?$10.85May 28, 23:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?$4.86May 28, 23:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?$5.98May 28, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?$1.62May 27, 15:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31?$0.75May 27, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?$16.92May 27, 04:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31?$17.80May 27, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?$1.34May 26, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.05May 26, 00:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.05May 26, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?$3.09May 26, 00:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.26May 26, 00:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?$3.04May 26, 00:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?$1.02May 25, 06:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bernie say "Healthcare" 4+ times in Maine?$1.16May 25, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernie say "Healthcare" 4+ times in Maine?$1.01May 23, 21:59 UTC
- TRADESELLUS recession by end of 2026?$0.06May 23, 21:46 UTC
- TRADESELLUS recession by end of 2026?$0.96May 23, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.02May 23, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.03May 23, 21:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $3.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 6, 18:17 UTC
- Last active
- May 28, 23:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".