0xf75fdeb82bfebbf28c6d61b512cdbea271b1be24
0xf75fdeb82bfebbf28c6d61b512cdbea271b1be24
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
52
Open notional
$6.08
Total PnL
$-114.14
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2 shares @ 61.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.08
$0.06
- NO
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
1 shares @ 92.0¢·now 94.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.07
$0.03
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
1 shares @ 92.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.06
$0.02
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
1 shares @ 87.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$1.05
$0.01
- YES
Will Darryn Peterson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?
5 shares @ 19.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp May 31, 2027$0.97
$-0.03
- YES
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4 shares @ 25.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$0.86
$-0.14
- YES
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
49 shares @ 20.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- KELVIN GASTELUM
UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelims)
42 shares @ 70.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-29.71
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
15 shares @ 69.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.26
- M80
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B
12 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.11
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Bitcoin", "Crypto", or "Cryptocurrency" during remarks in Las Vegas?$0.00Aug 6, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Bitcoin", "Crypto", or "Cryptocurrency" during remarks in Las Vegas?$4.69Aug 4, 18:22 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend$5.20Aug 4, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend$1.04Aug 1, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend$1.05Aug 1, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend$1.05Aug 1, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend$1.05Aug 1, 12:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.41Jul 29, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.05Jul 29, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China blockade Taiwan in 2026?$1.04Jul 29, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$1.04Jul 28, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.04Jul 24, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$1.04Jul 24, 18:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$0.99Jul 24, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?$1.04Jul 24, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darryn Peterson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?$1.04Jul 24, 06:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$1.03Jul 24, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$0.00Jul 23, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$1.02Jul 23, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$3.36Jul 22, 21:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $3.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 00:59 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 6, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.