Wallet digest

active

Activity score

93/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$809.52

Total PnL

$134.89

Realised

$7.90

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 11

NO
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
988 shares @ 44.9¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$587.79
$143.81
NO
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch?
107 shares @ 53.2¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$68.48
$11.53
NO
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?
109 shares @ 40.4¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$51.77
$7.72
NO
Tori FDV above $100M one day after launch?
43 shares @ 73.9¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$30.75
$-1.03
YES
Aligned FDV above $300M one day after launch?
95 shares @ 39.9¢·now 20.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$19.00
$-18.92
NO
MagicBlock FDV above $60M one day after launch?
30 shares @ 36.6¢·now 62.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$18.53
$7.59
NO
Makina FDV above $100M one day after launch?
19 shares @ 73.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$16.82
$2.94
NO
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026?
52 shares @ 27.4¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$16.38
$2.15
YES
Will Consensys IPO by June 30 2026?
107 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-2.35
YES
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by June 30?
38 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-23.56

Recent activity

TRADESELLExtended FDV above $300M one day after launch?$172.30Jul 26, 11:17 UTC
REDEEMTampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox$103.00Jul 17, 23:43 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$9.43Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
TRADESELLOpenAI IPO before 2027?$26.28Jul 6, 09:15 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.77Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$21.87Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$42.65Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$14.36Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$57.11Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
REDEEMWill Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026?$24.00Jul 1, 10:52 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$31.36Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$112.03Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$15.69Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$15.90Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.47Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$41.02Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$33.50Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.25Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$6.90Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$24.36Jun 22, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

review

5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity44 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence7 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry64 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk72 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 5
Avg trade size: $50.69
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 1, 00:35 UTC
Last active: Jul 26, 11:17 UTC
Win rate sample: 2 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 22:14:11 UTC·src:Polymarket Data