Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026?
Probability
26¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$5.71
Liquidity
$450.03
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 26¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6016h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 19.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6016.2h
- 12:48SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6016h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 25¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
9- 1¢0.0pp
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
Crypto · Vol $5.8M
- 0¢-67.5pp
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 24?
Crypto · Vol $2.9M
- 3¢+1.5pp
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?
Crypto · Vol $1.1M
- 1¢-0.8pp
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?
Crypto · Vol $275.6K
- 0¢-10.4pp
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 25?
Crypto · Vol $264.1K
- 100¢+0.4pp
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 25?
Crypto · Vol $255.9K
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tread officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Tread (https://www.tread.fi/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (19.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).