Aligned FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Probability
36¢
1h
+7.5pp
24h
+7.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$53.42
Probability (last 7 days)
+24.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14784.5h
- 04:30SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14784h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 33¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 27¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 27¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 27¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 27¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 27¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 27¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 28¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 30¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Aligned's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Aligned will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Aligned (https://x.com/alignedlayer) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (53.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).