Immaterial-Advantage
0xf85fa31a58fcce6c00b5af806a598b1600329800
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$33.1K
Total PnL
$-27.2K
Realised
$-39.62
Win rate
40%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
15010 shares @ 93.3¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$14.2K
$176.54
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
4500 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$4.5K
$-2.25
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
3768 shares @ 76.2¢·now 79.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.0K
$111.44
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
3385 shares @ 70.1¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.6K
$215.52
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
1703 shares @ 11.3¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$1.2K
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1062 shares @ 14.3¢·now 85.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$907.08
$755.37
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
750 shares @ 83.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$708.75
$86.01
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
789 shares @ 69.6¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$682.14
$133.04
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5047 shares @ 7.8¢·now 12.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$628.41
$234.71
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
1422 shares @ 64.9¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$490.50
$-433.00
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$12.46Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- REWARD$1.59Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$731.38Jul 28, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$458.62Jul 28, 23:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.9KJul 28, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$764.37Jul 28, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$458.62Jul 28, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$136.00Jul 28, 23:34 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$66.00Jul 28, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?$5.00Jul 28, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$7.85Jul 28, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$1.25Jul 28, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$0.12Jul 28, 18:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$627.90Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$109.82Jul 28, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$79.60Jul 28, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$17.51Jul 28, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$70.79Jul 28, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.7KJul 28, 15:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $537.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 22:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.