0xf885ae054c1c450e3182cee1287d8d063727d719
0xf885ae054c1c450e3182cee1287d8d063727d719
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
54
Open notional
$3.0K
Total PnL
$10.85
Realised
$63.63
Win rate
75%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 54- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
194 shares @ 93.2¢·now 95.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$186.33
$5.25
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
177 shares @ 84.9¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$166.94
$16.95
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
157 shares @ 95.7¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$148.10
$-1.89
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
187 shares @ 86.7¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$131.59
$-30.24
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
167 shares @ 82.9¢·now 75.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$125.52
$-12.63
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
201 shares @ 59.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$113.52
$-5.04
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?
114 shares @ 86.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$109.85
$11.95
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
189 shares @ 79.4¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$106.66
$-43.33
- NO
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
142 shares @ 67.4¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$98.82
$2.97
- YES
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
102 shares @ 94.8¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$97.19
$0.66
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $170B by December 31?$17.60Jul 23, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$39.60Jul 22, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$39.56Jul 22, 22:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $170B by December 31?$20.00Jul 22, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLCuban regime falls in 2026?$4.83Jul 22, 19:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron's next contract average $15M-$50M per year?$35.60Jul 22, 18:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by July 31?$3.68Jul 22, 17:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$35.38Jul 22, 16:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$51.62Jul 22, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$34.26Jul 22, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYTotal Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?$49.21Jul 22, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYTotal Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?$18.56Jul 22, 11:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$50.11Jul 22, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$10.60Jul 22, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$5.64Jul 22, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$9.30Jul 22, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$9.30Jul 22, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$9.30Jul 22, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$11.66Jul 22, 10:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$3.10Jul 22, 09:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $26.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 17:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.