Trifling-Ravioli
0xf8eb681fb8909496dc15aea5b233b310e2db8473
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$2.7K
Total PnL
$1.2K
Realised
$1.5K
Win rate
69%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
10265 shares @ 7.7¢·now 10.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$323.38
- YES
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
600 shares @ 76.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$453.00
$-3.00
- NO
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
343 shares @ 82.1¢·now 84.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$289.07
$7.84
- YES
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?
659 shares @ 35.9¢·now 26.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$171.42
$-65.26
- YES
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
200 shares @ 79.5¢·now 67.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$135.00
$-24.00
- YES
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?
374 shares @ 18.9¢·now 22.2¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$82.97
$12.44
- YES
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
1491 shares @ 7.6¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$67.11
$-47.07
- YES
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
163 shares @ 28.6¢·now 29.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.38
$0.63
- YES
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
965 shares @ 10.7¢·now 4.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$47.27
$-55.58
- NO
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?
50 shares @ 81.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$47.00
$6.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 77m?$27.99Jun 25, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?$73.40Jun 25, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$153.46Jun 25, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$306.92Jun 25, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$12.00Jun 25, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$6.00Jun 25, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?$4.80Jun 25, 08:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$46.53Jun 25, 06:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?$21.02Jun 25, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m?$0.11Jun 25, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?$40.50Jun 25, 04:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m?$0.11Jun 25, 03:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m?$0.15Jun 25, 03:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m?$23.46Jun 25, 03:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?$17.63Jun 25, 02:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$1.57Jun 25, 00:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$10.00Jun 24, 23:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$8.50Jun 24, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$1.20Jun 24, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$2.65Jun 24, 20:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $15.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 18:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 25, 15:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.