Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Probability
31¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$5.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-19.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5991.7h
- 08:17SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5992h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
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to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 32¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 31¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).