Quick-Cardboard
0xf92a950992181e21874dd1b36c7e5666c443a517
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$136.5K
Total PnL
$-7.3K
Realised
$751.60
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
15459 shares @ 93.2¢·now 94.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$14.6K
$180.39
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
14297 shares @ 95.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$14.2K
$545.70
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
11946 shares @ 77.6¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.8K
$1.5K
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
14122 shares @ 76.7¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.8K
$-28.57
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
10710 shares @ 94.9¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.7K
$500.88
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
10213 shares @ 93.2¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.2K
$661.98
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
9661 shares @ 77.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.0K
$532.39
- NO
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?
7378 shares @ 94.2¢·now 95.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$7.0K
$55.38
- YES
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
6960 shares @ 95.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$6.9K
$323.64
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
5600 shares @ 86.1¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.0K
$188.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$3.5KJul 28, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$287.10Jul 28, 17:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$799.52Jul 28, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$337.55Jul 28, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$948.13Jul 28, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYAbu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$182.88Jul 28, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?$3.7KJul 28, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?$1.9KJul 28, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?$1.9KJul 28, 17:21 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$970.93Jul 28, 17:16 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$845.49Jul 28, 16:33 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$53.00Jul 28, 14:55 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$60.00Jul 28, 14:52 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$150.00Jul 28, 14:52 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$62.00Jul 28, 14:52 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$48.20Jul 28, 14:52 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$64.00Jul 28, 14:52 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$49.00Jul 28, 14:52 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$119.76Jul 28, 14:28 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$52.50Jul 28, 13:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
$5.3K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $470.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 11:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.