Impassioned-Exploration
0xfa854be41a54b1c030c2b021b10031be76292916
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$12.13
Total PnL
$-103.60
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Kristi Noem out by March 31?
4 shares @ 26.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$3.85
$2.85
- NO
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?
3 shares @ 30.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.33
$2.33
- YES
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027
7 shares @ 14.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.43
$1.43
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
1 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$1.09
$0.09
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
1 shares @ 92.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.03
$0.03
- YES
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?
2 shares @ 57.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.41
$-0.59
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
286 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January?
144 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?
139 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?
105 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-14.74
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?$1.70Mar 1, 17:21 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?$1.56Mar 1, 17:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?$1.35Mar 1, 17:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of January?$1.01Feb 28, 00:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during January press conference?$1.04Feb 28, 00:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?$1.11Feb 28, 00:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of January?$1.16Feb 28, 00:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle over $5,500 on the final trading day of January 2026?$1.96Feb 28, 00:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle over $5,200 on the final trading day of January 2026?$2.60Feb 28, 00:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027$1.00Jan 29, 09:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?$0.00Jan 29, 09:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Powell say "Job" 15+ times during January press conference?$1.04Jan 29, 09:49 UTC
- REDEEMU.S. Government funding lapse on October 1?$0.00Jan 29, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?$1.00Jan 28, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) settle over $5,200 on the final trading day of January 2026?$1.00Jan 28, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) settle over $5,500 on the final trading day of January 2026?$1.00Jan 28, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during January press conference?$1.00Jan 28, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "Job" 15+ times during January press conference?$1.00Jan 28, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January?$1.00Jan 28, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$1.00Jan 28, 19:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $5.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 20, 03:13 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 1, 17:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.