Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Probability
59¢
1h
+1.2pp
24h
+1.7pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$27.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5990.8h
- 09:09SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5991h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 59¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 57¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 57¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 57¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 57¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 57¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 57¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 57¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 56¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 58¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 59¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.4pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.7pp
to 59¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.4pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.4pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 59¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.4pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.4pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.4pp
to 60¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 59¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 60¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 60¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 62¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 60¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.7pp
to 62¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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