Bustling-Data
0xfb461c16ef90a513e1412f1d53c1021ece14f68b
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
116
Open notional
$3.5K
Total PnL
$-4.6K
Realised
$238.20
Win rate
67%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 116- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
452 shares @ 66.3¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$323.38
$23.38
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
257 shares @ 77.8¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$237.68
$37.68
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
249 shares @ 74.6¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$225.57
$39.57
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
242 shares @ 62.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$216.54
$66.53
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
356 shares @ 49.1¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$204.86
$29.86
- NO
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
220 shares @ 66.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$193.33
$48.33
- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
212 shares @ 85.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$183.18
$3.18
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
172 shares @ 87.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$162.07
$12.07
- NO
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
179 shares @ 70.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$158.04
$33.04
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
201 shares @ 58.7¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$157.71
$39.71
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.04Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 9, 00:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 7, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 6, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.