Likely-Politician
0xfb7f618ed3f4c4ddc4bd3d48b3d9bdd513daeae2
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$216.53
Total PnL
$-263.76
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
120 shares @ 41.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$120.05
$70.05
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
41 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$40.54
$10.54
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?
28 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$28.17
$8.17
- NO
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?
28 shares @ 72.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$27.78
$7.78
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
1500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?
420 shares @ 48.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-203.00
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
89 shares @ 90.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-80.00
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?
76 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-49.30
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
50 shares @ 39.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?$3.10May 6, 10:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?$142.24May 6, 10:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?$12.47May 4, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?$80.32Apr 30, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?$20.23Apr 30, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?$101.96Apr 30, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?$204.00Apr 30, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$30.00Apr 30, 06:26 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$17.33Apr 30, 06:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?$39.20Apr 30, 06:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$384.66Apr 30, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$351.87Apr 26, 17:33 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$78.62Apr 26, 17:33 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$248.70Apr 26, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$50.00Apr 26, 17:20 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?$35.85Apr 26, 17:18 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$38.69Apr 26, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$236.74Apr 23, 01:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$5.00Apr 23, 01:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$3.00Apr 23, 01:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $85.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 16, 08:55 UTC
- Last active
- May 6, 10:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.