Bare-Mambo
0xfc04e014f3e520191b5f456ca6a47f93b0a14f75
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$24.8K
Total PnL
$794.48
Realised
$-1.6K
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
13116 shares @ 73.6¢·now 86.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$11.3K
$1.7K
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
10000 shares @ 95.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.7K
$150.00
- YES
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
2587 shares @ 55.5¢·now 97.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.5K
$1.1K
- YES
Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
668 shares @ 90.3¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$659.17
$55.80
- NO
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
301 shares @ 81.1¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$200.16
$-44.01
- NO
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
205 shares @ 93.8¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$179.37
$-12.87
- YES
Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31?
126 shares @ 87.2¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$123.86
$13.93
- YES
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
96 shares @ 48.5¢·now 49.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$47.04
$0.46
- YES
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
208 shares @ 19.4¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$30.14
$-10.14
- YES
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
15 shares @ 80.7¢·now 96.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$14.45
$2.35
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$9.5KJun 23, 09:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$9.7KJun 23, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$60.56Jun 23, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$150.39Jun 23, 09:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$198.34Jun 23, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.08Jun 23, 09:00 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$4.70Jun 23, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$4.00Jun 23, 01:59 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$3.54Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$70.34Jun 22, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$48.87Jun 22, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$99.17Jun 22, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$36.40Jun 22, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$41.85Jun 22, 00:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$28.00Jun 22, 00:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$8.98Jun 21, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$30.21Jun 21, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$46.58Jun 21, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$1.10Jun 21, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYLabour leadership election scheduled by July 31?$22.35Jun 21, 12:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$38.3K
Trades
3
Buy share
0%
Window
May 24, 09:00 UTC → Jun 23, 09:56 UTC
- SELLWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$9.7K@99¢Jun 23, 09:56 UTC
- SELLWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$11.4K@100¢Jun 1, 05:36 UTC
- SELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?$17.2K@100¢May 24, 08:55 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$9.7K
1 trades
30d volume
$21.1K
2 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
limited
3 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?
$17.2K · 45% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $990.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 09:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 09:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.