Sympathetic-Monster
0xfd411f835cd21fe64537be2e6a257d500ee13796
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
6
Open notional
$689.00
Total PnL
$-146.70
Realised
$-37.04
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?
622 shares @ 40.6¢·now 53.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$330.28
$77.75
- NO
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?
301 shares @ 89.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$287.45
$19.56
- YES
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
735 shares @ 37.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$69.83
$-202.13
- YES
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
20 shares @ 25.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.30
$-3.70
- YES
Rippling IPO before 2027?
1 shares @ 39.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.14
$-0.25
- YES
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
6 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.90
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?$0.57Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMForeign intervention in Gaza by March 31?$0.99Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.50 (HIGH) by February 28, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by April 15, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tariq Obaid as Taro Sakamoto (SAKAMOTO DAYS) win Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Arabic) at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?$8.00Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?$0.00Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - February 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$0.00Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks$0.00Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in March 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?$20.00Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?$28.00Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$0.00Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?$0.00Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?$0.00Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Southern Illinois Salukis (-4.5)$0.00Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on February 13?$0.00Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Brown University shooter not be arrested in 2025?$0.00Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-03-05?$0.00Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
13 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 13
- Avg trade size
- $257.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 13, 09:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.