Solid-Leprosy
0xfd9cb952ff55f7aa1bb0b83be377755f1edabe4d
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
36
Open notional
$304.68
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$68.05
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- NO
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
147 shares @ 48.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$139.95
$69.61
- NO
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
140 shares @ 31.0¢·now 66.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$92.40
$49.00
- YES
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?
136 shares @ 22.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.84
$-4.08
- YES
RFK Jr. Out by December 31?
70 shares @ 24.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.14
$7.34
- NO
Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.?
15 shares @ 40.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.80
$7.80
- YES
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
95 shares @ 22.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Oct 17, 2026$6.65
$-14.25
- NO
Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 10–15%?
93 shares @ 30.0¢·now 1.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$1.35
$-26.55
- NO
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
21 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$0.18
$-1.30
- YES
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
3 shares @ 1.0¢·now 5.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.17
$0.14
- YES
Will voter turnout be at least 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
1 shares @ 15.0¢·now 13.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$0.17
$-0.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia target Kyiv by August 31, 2026?$2.04Jul 28, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Frank Klingebiel win the next Salzgitter mayoral election?$58.88Jul 27, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Houthis successfully target shipping on July 24, 2026?$54.99Jul 24, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$70.34Jul 24, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026?$3.29Jul 23, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 10–15%?$27.90Jul 22, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 19?$2.57Jul 19, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?$2.66Jul 18, 03:27 UTC
- REWARD$2.40Jul 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?$19.50Jul 15, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?$19.50Jul 15, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?$0.97Jul 15, 19:21 UTC
- REWARD$1.63Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump accuse Iran of election interference by July 16?$0.03Jul 14, 10:00 UTC
- REWARD$1.97Jul 14, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?$23.00Jul 13, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?$38.69Jul 13, 17:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?$30.68Jul 13, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 20–25%?$3.20Jul 13, 08:27 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.24Jul 11, 00:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $37.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 26, 10:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 09:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.