Where can I see the live data, signals, and large-trade flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-sender-of-the-i-beat-bush-email-to-epstein-not-be-revealed-in-2026 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-sender-of-the-i-beat-bush-email-to-epstein-not-be-revealed-in-2026/markdown.

PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026

Creator

Will the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026?

Probability

75¢

+1.0pp

24h

+0.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$854.76

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Dec 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
x.com
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+5.5pp 7d

75¢

Jun 7, 2026, 15:00 UTCJun 14, 2026, 14:29 UTC

updated 14:29:55 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-14T14-29Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
02
Spread cost
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Dec 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
x.com
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

liquidity sensitive

Trust transition

Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

Criteria covered

Reviewed

Awaiting review

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution
Market resolves in 4785.5h
LOW
14:29Signal
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
LOW

Price movement

+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 75¢.

Biggest hourly move: +8.5pp at Jun 11, 15:00 UTC (to 73¢).

Show top 8 of 42 hourly moves

Jun 12, 22:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 76¢
Jun 12, 03:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 72¢
Jun 11, 15:00 UTC · +8.5pp → 73¢
Jun 11, 05:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 73¢
Jun 10, 20:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 72¢
Jun 10, 15:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 72¢
Jun 10, 12:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 74¢
Jun 10, 09:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 72¢

updated 14:29:55 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flow Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 14:29:55 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same event"I beat Bush" Epstein Email Sender confirmed as ___ ?

Category · Politics

Market Description

On February 12, 2026, Rep. Ro Khanna posted a document on X that displays an email with the subject line "I beat Bush" addressed to Jeffrey Epstein, calling for the sender’s identity to be unredacted. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/reprokhanna/status/2022046192478327156 This market will resolve to the individual whose email account is confirmed to have sent the specified message by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no individual's email account is confirmed to have sent the message by the end date, this market will resolve to "Not revealed in 2026". The identity of the account must be revealed unambiguously, for example, through a public unredaction of the document in question, which clearly and definitively reveals the sender’s address. Official statements regarding the sender’s identity, or any confirmation that does not involve public unredaction of the specified document, including access limited to House members, congressional committees, or other restricted parties, will qualify only if there is a broad consensus as to their truthfulness. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026?"?

As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 14:29:55 GMT, YES is priced at 75% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +1.0pp in the last hour, and +5.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $4.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $854.76. Spread between best bid and best ask: 10.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket