Will the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026?
Probability
86¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$12.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 86¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5986.2h
- 13:47SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 86¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 86¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 86¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 86¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 86¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 86¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 86¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 86¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 86¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 87¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 87¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 87¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 88¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 88¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 86¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 87¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 87¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 88¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 86¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 81¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 81¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 86¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 81¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 86¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
On February 12, 2026, Rep. Ro Khanna posted a document on X that displays an email with the subject line "I beat Bush" addressed to Jeffrey Epstein, calling for the sender’s identity to be unredacted. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/reprokhanna/status/2022046192478327156 This market will resolve to the individual whose email account is confirmed to have sent the specified message by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no individual's email account is confirmed to have sent the message by the end date, this market will resolve to "Not revealed in 2026". The identity of the account must be revealed unambiguously, for example, through a public unredaction of the document in question, which clearly and definitively reveals the sender’s address. Official statements regarding the sender’s identity, or any confirmation that does not involve public unredaction of the specified document, including access limited to House members, congressional committees, or other restricted parties, will qualify only if there is a broad consensus as to their truthfulness. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).