Quarterly-Gliding
0xfecace78db874bf3c772d740c2f494c4f35af1ad
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$92.70
Total PnL
$-133.53
Realised
$3.63
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100 shares @ 15.9¢·now 25.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.75
$9.85
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
100 shares @ 14.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.50
$5.50
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
400 shares @ 1.5¢·now 3.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$14.00
$8.20
- YES
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
50 shares @ 6.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$11.75
$8.75
- YES
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?
50 shares @ 9.0¢·now 17.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$8.50
$4.00
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
29 shares @ 17.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.21
$2.21
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
63 shares @ 8.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$2.78
$-2.22
- YES
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by July 31, 2026?
85 shares @ 5.9¢·now 3.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.76
$-2.25
- NO
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
100 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.45
$-0.65
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
26930 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-50.36
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYAbbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by July 31, 2026?$3.54Jul 12, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYAbbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by July 31, 2026?$1.48Jul 11, 23:44 UTC
- REDEEMBoston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5$5.00Jul 11, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBoston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5$3.41Jul 11, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week?$1.43Jul 11, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week?$0.77Jul 11, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Six Seven" this week?$1.09Jul 10, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Six Seven" this week?$0.91Jul 10, 10:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?$4.50Jul 10, 02:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$1.04Jul 10, 01:33 UTC
- TRADESELLMilwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals$9.80Jul 10, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$0.06Jul 10, 01:00 UTC
- TRADESELLMilwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals$0.39Jul 10, 00:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals$4.00Jul 10, 00:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals$4.00Jul 9, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET$6.00Jul 9, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$0.34Jul 9, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$0.40Jul 9, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$0.10Jul 9, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$0.20Jul 9, 00:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $4.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 18:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 05:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.