Plush-Homogenate
0xff12c076486622f6492023399a4e84d46dfbcdc4
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
56
Open notional
$477.92
Total PnL
$-0.53
Realised
$18.35
Win rate
50%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 56- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
198 shares @ 84.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$172.88
$6.85
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
102 shares @ 73.3¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$77.79
$3.22
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
63 shares @ 61.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$41.88
$3.46
- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
19 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$18.82
$0.93
- YES
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
80 shares @ 26.3¢·now 22.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.00
$-3.07
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
18 shares @ 83.8¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$15.19
$0.47
- YES
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
33 shares @ 43.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$11.04
$-3.13
- YES
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
16 shares @ 85.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$10.27
$-3.48
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
25 shares @ 43.2¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.68
$-3.20
- YES
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
10 shares @ 79.5¢·now 74.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$7.39
$-0.55
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$1.40Jul 29, 05:54 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Thom Tillis vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?$4.75Jul 28, 22:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Janet Mills be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$5.00Jul 28, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.47Jul 28, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$7.24Jul 28, 00:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$28.23Jul 28, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$5.97Jul 28, 00:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by July 31, 2026?$1.05Jul 27, 23:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$18.46Jul 27, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$4.69Jul 27, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?$4.88Jul 27, 18:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$5.00Jul 27, 17:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?$10.00Jul 27, 14:41 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.00Jul 26, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$12.66Jul 26, 08:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$4.42Jul 26, 03:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$4.20Jul 26, 02:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $4.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 05:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.