Each-Registration
0xff9152ac8cb6260419ea8940248177083aceab3a
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$19.8K
Total PnL
$1.8K
Realised
$1.5K
Win rate
80%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
4695 shares @ 73.6¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.5K
$88.59
- NO
Gemini 4.0 released by July 31, 2026?
2045 shares @ 95.5¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.0K
$81.38
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
1800 shares @ 78.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.8K
$390.90
- NO
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
1853 shares @ 69.7¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$264.08
- NO
Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?
1316 shares @ 93.8¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.3K
$74.73
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
1200 shares @ 81.6¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.0K
$47.01
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
700 shares @ 85.4¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$633.50
$35.50
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
631 shares @ 93.3¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$625.42
$35.96
- NO
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?
700 shares @ 86.2¢·now 88.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$616.70
$13.60
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
600 shares @ 89.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$542.97
$9.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$195.00Jul 29, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$159.35Jul 29, 18:22 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$16.41Jul 29, 12:43 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$11.86Jul 29, 12:43 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$24.55Jul 29, 12:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$59.00Jul 29, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$70.80Jul 29, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$60.00Jul 29, 07:50 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$33.09Jul 29, 07:48 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$33.30Jul 29, 07:48 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$67.35Jul 29, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$69.80Jul 29, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$183.60Jul 29, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$64.44Jul 29, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$109.99Jul 29, 07:30 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.23Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$184.20Jul 28, 22:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$276.90Jul 28, 22:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$5.46Jul 28, 22:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $113.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 10:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 18:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.