High
Orrery — the verification layer for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
5 observations · 32 resolution risks
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TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1
Resolves in 1h — verify the source
Verify
2Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev
UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
4US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
5US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
Resolves in 9h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
25% 16.5pp
24h volume
$183.3K
Orrery Pulse18% current8-23% 7D range+7.0pp net move
26%21%16%10%5%
18%
Jun 218%+7.0pp from start
Jun 1Jun 1Jun 1Jun 1Jun 1Jun 2Jun 2Jun 2
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Top read
24h Δ 13.0pp, 1h Δ 3.5pp · Turnover 2.4× liquidity
4Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ 3.5pp, 1h Δ 1.0pp · Turnover 4.6× liquidity
5Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
24h Δ 5.5pp, 1h Δ 0.5pp · Turnover 1.3× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
Birmingham: James Watt vs Harry WendelkenUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Lloyd HarrisUMA PENDING
High
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai SharksUMA PENDING
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 95/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/78 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 72/92 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 76 | 72/93 60/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 75 | 71/92 60/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 2, 2026
Read full brief - Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? probability up 16.5pp on $0.2M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? resolves in 1h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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