Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
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Prediction-market intelligence terminal
Know what moved, why it matters, what can go wrong, and what to verify next. Built for humans, teams, and AI agents.
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MARKET PULSE
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest divergence observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
31% 10.5pp
24h volume
$290.2K
Orrery Pulse0% current0-31% 7D range-26.5pp net move
100%75%50%25%0%
0%
May 170%-26.5pp from start
May 13May 14May 14May 15May 15May 16May 17May 17
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch 32 active risks in one mode
High
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17?UMA PENDING
High
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17?UMA PENDING
High
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?UMA PENDING
High
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17?UMA PENDING
High
High
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-17?UMA PENDING
High
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-17?UMA PENDING
High
High
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17?UMA PENDING
High
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17?UMA PENDING
High
New York Yankees vs. New York MetsUMA PENDING
High
High
San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsUMA PENDING
High
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?UMA DISPUTED
High
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysUMA PENDING
High
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White SoxUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?UMA PENDING
High
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles AngelsUMA PENDING
High
High
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis CardinalsUMA PENDING
High
High
High
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5UMA PENDING
High
High
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 70/81 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 17, 2026
Read full brief - Iran closes its airspace by May 24? probability up 10.5pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24? shows a divergence pattern at 70% evidence — verify on the market.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 18? resolves in 1h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (1)
IGNORE (2)
RISK INCREASED (2)
WATCHLIST DELTA
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