Orrery — the verification layer for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
4 observations · 32 resolution risks
VERIFICATION QUEUERanked checks before you trust the price.
Full research queue WHY THIS IS #1
Scoring M1
Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of June?
Ranked by evidence, liquidity, spread quality, resolution state, and whether related markets need comparison.
Source statusUMA DISPUTEDEvidence context95/100 evidenceMarket movement22.5ppLiquidity$0Next checkVerify source and settlement before reading price moves as info
EVIDENCE ACTIONS
All signals 1Open
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?Queue proof
24h Δ 14.4pp, 1h Δ 0.1pp · Turnover 8.5× liquidity
2Open
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
24h Δ -7.3pp, 1h Δ -9.7pp · Turnover 3.0× liquidity
3Open
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
24h Δ 6.3pp, 1h Δ 9.0pp · Turnover 3.5× liquidity
4Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -6.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 2.3× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta ShimizuUMA PENDING
High
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago SkyUMA PENDING
High
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue JaysUMA PENDING
High
High
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas RangersPAST EVENT
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Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFirePAST EVENT
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Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5)PAST EVENT
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Knicks vs. SpursPAST EVENT
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Spread: Spurs (-6.5)PAST EVENT
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Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5PAST EVENT
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Spread: Spurs (-7.5)PAST EVENT
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Spread: Spurs (-5.5)PAST EVENT
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Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5PAST EVENT
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Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5PAST EVENT
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Spread: Spurs (-4.5)PAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
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Tape quiet — no large trades, signals, or 1h moves above the threshold in this window.
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 95/74 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 86/89 92/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 82/87 92/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 81/97 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 6, 2026
Read full brief - Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? probability up 14.4pp on $0.2M of 24h volume.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs resolves in 13h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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