Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Verification layer
The verification layer for prediction markets.
Know what moved, why it matters, what can go wrong, and what to verify before trusting the odds.
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5 things to verify
5 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca
Momentum observation
Momentum
2Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Momentum observation
Momentum
3Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Momentum observation
Momentum
4Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Resolution-risk observation — settlement caveat
Verify
5Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao FonsecaHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
20% 39.0pp
24h volume
$2.1M
Orrery Pulse0% current0-42% 7D range-38.5pp net move
56%42%28%14%0%
0%
May 310%-38.5pp from start
May 30May 30May 31May 31May 31May 31May 31May 31
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao FonsecaTop read
24h Δ -39.0pp, 1h Δ -10.0pp · Turnover 20.8× liquidity
2Open
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
24h Δ 27.0pp, 1h Δ 23.0pp · Turnover 6.1× liquidity
3Open
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
24h Δ -24.5pp, 1h Δ -22.5pp · Turnover 7.0× liquidity
4Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -3.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 3.1× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosUMA PENDING
High
San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsUMA PENDING
High
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsUMA PENDING
High
High
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesUMA PENDING
High
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31?UMA PENDING
High
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)UMA PENDING
High
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31?UMA PENDING
High
High
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31?UMA PENDING
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
World Championships: Switzerland vs. FinlandUMA PENDING
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansUMA PENDING
High
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysUMA PENDING
High
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesUMA PENDING
High
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 95/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/79 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 95/78 60/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 71/93 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 74 | 58/85 90/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 31, 2026
Read full brief - Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca probability down 39.0pp on $2.1M of 24h volume.
- Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
RISK INCREASED (0)
- No new resolution risks
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