Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Momentum observation
Momentum
3Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?
Resolves in 21h — verify the source
Verify
4LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Resolves in 9h — verify the source
Verify
5US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
64% 38.9pp
24h volume
$920.8K
Orrery Pulse38% current35-39% 7D range-0.5pp net move
45%41%37%32%28%
38%
May 3138%-0.5pp from start
May 30May 30May 30May 31May 31May 31May 31May 31
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Top read
24h Δ 38.9pp, 1h Δ 0.1pp · Turnover 2.9× liquidity
2Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
24h Δ -11.8pp, 1h Δ -0.1pp · Turnover 3.4× liquidity
3Open
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
24h Δ -9.5pp, 1h Δ -0.5pp · Turnover 1.2× liquidity
4Open
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
24h Δ 3.2pp, 1h Δ 0.2pp · Turnover 2.1× liquidity
5Open
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
24h Δ -7.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 0.9× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
High
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
High
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 95/92 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 90 | 95/85 94/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 71/93 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 83/85 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 78 | 70/89 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 31, 2026
Read full brief - Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? probability up 38.9pp on $0.9M of 24h volume.
- Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs resolves in 8h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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