US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
5 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?
Resolves in 14h — verify the source
Verify
3US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
4Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
5Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Divergence observation
Divergence
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Top read
24h Δ -9.3pp, 1h Δ -0.2pp · Turnover 2.7× liquidity
2Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -6.8pp, 1h Δ -11.7pp · Turnover 7.9× liquidity
3Open
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev
24h Δ 6.0pp, 1h Δ 6.0pp · Turnover 5.7× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 92/85 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 84/81 78/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 81/83 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 81 | 80/79 86/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 81 | 81/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 31, 2026
Read full brief - Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? probability up 39.0pp on $1.1M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 92% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? resolves in 14h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
RISK INCREASED (2)
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