Orrery Indexes
Each index is a 0-100 composite of average 24h move, total 24h volume, and resolution pressure across the markets in a category. Higher means the category is louder right now. Public Polymarket data, refreshed every 30 minutes, never trade calls.
Geopolitics Risk Index
Composite of 24h move, attention, and resolution pressure across geopolitics markets — Iran, Ukraine, Taiwan, Hormuz, ceasefire and conflict-escalation odds.
Crypto Volatility Index
How much crypto-event markets moved in the last 24h. BTC level markets, ETF approvals, hack/exploit markets, exchange-status markets.
Election Heat Index
Politics + election market activity. US races, party primaries, electoral-college markets, candidate-resignation odds.
Sports Chaos Index
Aggregate 24h move and attention across sports markets — NBA, NHL, MLB, soccer, tennis, F1, esports.
Macro Pressure Index
Macro market activity — Fed decisions, CPI prints, recession probability, commodity prices, dollar moves.
AI Hype Index
Composite of LLM-leaderboard markets, AGI / superhuman-eval markets, and tech-figure narratives. Measures attention more than volatility.
Resolution Risk Index
Concentration of disputed UMA resolutions and tight-spread markets near expiry across every category. Higher = more settlement uncertainty in the pipeline.
Formula
transparentindex = 0.5 × normalised average |Δ24h| (how much things moved) + 0.3 × normalised total 24h volume (how much attention) + 0.2 × resolution-pressure component (concentration of <72h)
Each component is normalised against a category-specific ceiling (hand-tuned from observed historical maxima) so scores are bounded and comparable across indexes. No persistent store yet — once Orrery has signal-firing history we'll add a day-over-day delta and an archive at /indexes/[slug]/[date].