SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 7, 2026
Creator

Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday?

Probability

0¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.4pp

24h Vol

$565.00

Liquidity

$5.1K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Jun 7, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the listed player who wins the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday tournament
Link
pgatour.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Jun 7, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
Jun 1, 2026, 17:00 UTCJun 5, 2026, 19:22 UTC
updated 19:22:17 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-05T19-22Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 29h.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $5.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 29 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

price pinned not settled
Trust transition

The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: https://www.pgatour.com/

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Price is not settlement

required

Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.

Current evidence: 0¢ current price

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday? State: Pinned near NO — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday? State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 7, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 28.6h

    HIGH
  • 19:22Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 29h.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

-1.4pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -48.0pp at Jun 4, 05:00 UTC (to 2¢).

updated 19:22:17 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 19:22:17 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventPGA Tour: the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday Winner
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No". If an unlisted player wins the the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday tournament this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no winner is announced by June 13, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

pga tour

Reason

PGA Tour golf market — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday?"?

As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 19:22:17 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 7, 2026 (2026-06-07T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.pgatour.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.pgatour.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$565.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $5.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

15 wallets
Open on Polymarket