Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Probability
75¢
1h
-2.5pp
24h
-3.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$4.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+33.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14786.2h
- 02:46SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14786h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.0pp
to 77¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.5pp
to 78¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.0pp
to 75¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 32.0pp
to 77¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.0pp
to 76¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.5pp
to 76¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.0pp
to 79¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 32.0pp
to 77¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 36.0pp
to 81¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 36.0pp
to 81¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.5pp
to 76¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.0pp
to 78¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.0pp
to 78¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 36.0pp
to 76¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 39.0pp
to 78¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 40.0pp
to 79¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.5pp
to 80¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 41.5pp
to 79¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 40.5pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.5pp
to 76¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 37.0pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 37.5pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 36.5pp
to 78¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 36.5pp
to 78¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.0pp
to 71¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.5pp
to 72¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Aligned's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Aligned will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Aligned (https://x.com/alignedlayer) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (22.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).