Aligned FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Probability
10¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$9.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14784.5h
- 04:29SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14785h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.4pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Aligned's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Aligned will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Aligned (https://x.com/alignedlayer) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (16.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).